Wolf Hall II and the Modern World System (1450-1640): Consulting Astrologer John Dee

 

I hope you are watching the final episodes of Wolf Hall Season 2 on PBS starting last Sunday, March 23, 2025 (the link is here and you might find parallels to the current political situation in the United States). In a prior post (here) I discussed Season 1. In this post, I will start laying some groundwork for Season 2. In future posts, I'll comment on the remaining episodes (you can stream Season2, Episode 3, Defiance or watch it over the air tonight).

Thomas Cromwell, the central character in the Wolf Hall TV series, lived from 1485-1540 during a period called the Long Sixteenth Century (L16, more information will be posted here). Cromwell was Henry VIII's chief minister and played a prominent role of the beginning of the English Reformation.

To help me understand the The Tudor Period (1485-1603), I've constructed a number of state space models for England, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal, the World System and other countries in the World-System using available historical statistics (see the country models here that will be attached to future posts). The most noteworthy aspect of my WL16 state space World System model (here) are the two Growth Error Correcting Controllers (ECCs), one is an environmental controller (Q-T) and another is a Malthusian Population and Production controller (Q-N)--see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below. I can also compare the WL16 model to a conventional economic growth model driven by technological change.*

In the  Wolf Hall TV series, we are seeing the Tudor elites (Thomas Cromwell and Henry VIII) in all their splendor. All the heavy, elegant clothing had a purpose: the castles were cold and drafty and this was the Little Ice Age in Europe (graphic above from Waldinger, 2022). We find out little about the lower classes in the TV series, but we can be sure they suffered.

Another important aspect of the Long Sixteenth Century was that it was the start of Capitalist Agriculture and the formation of the World-System (discussed here and here). The evolution of the World-System is my primary interest in the Wolf Hall TV series because it helps bring the history to life.

Historical re-interpretation is another way to bring history to life and Hillary Mantel does this in Wolf Hall (see the Real Story Behind Wolff Hall and the Fall of Cromwell from the Smithsonian Magazine).

I'm going to extend Hillary Mantel by including John Dee (a character not in "Wolf Hall"). ChatGPT (here) reports that Henry VIII "...did rely on astrologers like John Dee (who later advised Elizabeth I) and may have had private interactions with individuals claiming to predict the future." In the graphic above, I assume that sometime before Cromwell's execution, John Dee made two predictions, one (optimistic forecast) for Henry VIII and one (less optimistic) for Thomas Cromwell. The optimistic forecast was "unlimited growth forever" (the dotted green line in the graphic above) and the less optimistic forecast (the black-blue line) for a Limit to Growth (the dashed red line was the Random Walk--history is just one damed thing after another).

I'm going to imagine that Henry VIII's response to the optimistic forecast was "Surely, Doctor Dee, I should care not for such World Systems when my appetites are solely for England."** Cromwell was not so dismissive in his response but encouraged Master Dee to focus on the best Geopolitical Alliance Henry might find through marriage. 

Dr. Dee went back to his extensive library in Mortlake, Surrey in England, dusted off his protractor and constructed geometric forecasts for Henry VIII and later Elizabeth I (Henry's daughter). In these forecasts, Dee was careful not to be seen as an unwitting tool of evil spirits. In future posts I will report on modern day versions of Dr. Dee's imaginary forecasts and concentrate on finding the best Geopolitical Alliances for Tudor England.

Notes

* The Environmental and Malthusian controllers are not the only ECCs that can exist is a socio-technical system, but they were the most important in the Long Sixteenth Century. Dynamic Component Models (DCMs) divide system variables into growth and cyclical component state variables. The growth component is equivalent to an economic growth model. The feedback components describe ECCs. Neoclassical Economic Growth theory has no concept of feedback and Climate Change models have struggled to identify feedback loops in Human Systems,

** Unfortunately, for Henry VIII's appetites and intuitions, the World System (specifically the WL16 model) was an important driver of England's development during the Long Sixteenth Century.

Data were taken from the Maddison Database and the Measurement Matrix (below was constructed from the available data using Principal Components Analysis, PCA). Q =  Aggregate Production, N= Population and T = Global Temperature. During the Long Sixteenth Century there was no concept of Aggregate Production, Aggregate Population, Global Temperature or the World System.

More detail about the model will be made available in future posts. You can run both and unstable and stabilized version of the WL16 model here. For more technical information, see the Boiler Plate.

Links

• Thomas Cromwell (1485-1540) An English statesman and lawyer who served as chief minister to King Henry VIII from 1534 to 1540, when he was beheaded on orders of the king, who later blamed false charges for the execution.
• John Dee (1527-1608) an English mathematician, astronomer, teacher, astrologer, occultist, and alchemist.
• Catherine of Aragon  The first wife of King Henry VIII from their marriage on 11 June 1509 until its annulment on 23 May 1533.
• King Henry VIII King of England from 22 April 1509 until his death in 1547. 
• Elizabeth I (7 September 1533 – 24 March 1603) the only surviving child of Henry VIII and his second wife, Anne Boleyn. Queen of England and Ireland from 17 November 1558 until her death in 1603.
• English Reformation Took place in 16th-century England when the Church of England was forced by its monarchs and elites to break away from the authority of the Pope and the Catholic Church.
• Anne Boleyn  Queen of England from 1533 to 1536 and the second wife of King Henry VIII. 
• Oliver Cromwell (25 April 1599 – 3 September 1658) was an English statesman, politician, and soldier, widely regarded as one of the most important figures in British history.
• Thomas Wolsey An English statesman and Catholic cardinal. When Henry VIII became King of England in 1509, Wolsey became the king's almoner.
• Elizabeth Wyckes The wife of Thomas Cromwell (1485 – 28 July 1540), died in 1529 and his daughters, Anne and Grace, are believed to have died not long after their mother.
• Hans Holbein the Younger A German-Swiss painter and printmaker who worked in a Northern Renaissance style, and is considered one of the greatest portraitists of the 16th century.
• Wolf Hall A 2009 historical novel by English author Hilary Mantel, published by Fourth Estate, named after the Seymour family's seat of Wolfhall, or Wulfhall, in Wiltshire. Set in the period from 1500 to 1535, Wolf Hall is a sympathetic fictionalized biography documenting the rapid rise to power of Thomas Cromwell in the court of Henry VIII through to the death of Sir Thomas More.
• Wolf Hall (TV Series) a British television series adaptation of two of Hilary Mantel's novels, Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies, a fictionalized biography documenting the life of Thomas Cromwell.
• World-Systems Theory A multidisciplinary approach to world history and social change which emphasizes the world-system (and not nation states) as the primary (but not exclusive) unit of social analysis.
• Sweating Sickness  A mysterious and contagious disease that struck England and later continental Europe in a series of epidemics beginning in 1485.
• Holy Roman Empire A polity in Central and Western Europe, usually headed by the Holy Roman Emperor.^[19] It developed in the Early Middle Ages and lasted for almost a thousand years until its dissolution in 1806 during the Napoleonic Wars.
• Timeline of British History 1500-1599 
• Timelines of World History 
• The Black Death The Black Death was a bubonic plague pandemic that occurred in Europe from 1346 to 1353. It was one of the most fatal pandemics in human history.
• English Civil War a series of civil wars and political machinations between Royalists and Parliamentarians in the Kingdom of England from 1642 to 1651.
• Peasant's Revolt a major uprising across large parts of England in 1381.
• Feudalism a combination of legal, economic, military, cultural, and political customs that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries.
• The 15th Century the century which spans the Julian calendar dates from 1 January 1401 (represented by the Roman numerals MCDI) to 31 December 1500 (MD).
• Little Ice Age a period of regional cooling, particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic region.
• Economic History of the United Kingdom the economic development in the British state from the absorption of Wales into the Kingdom of England after 1535 to the modern United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland of the early 21st century.
• Tudor Period In England and Wales, the Tudor period occurred between 1485 and 1603, including the Elizabethan era during the reign of Elizabeth I (1558–1603).

Boiler Plate

 

State Space Model Estimation

The Measurement Matrix for the state space models was constructed using Principal Components Analysis with standardized data from the World Development Indicators. The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the dse package. The package is currently supported by an online portal (here) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer here. Code for the state space Dynamic Component models (DCMs) is available on my Google drive (here) and referenced in each post.

Atlanta Fed Economy Now

My approach to forecasting is similar to the EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future.

While the app is still available, there have been some interesting developments. In earlier forecasts, the Atlanta Fed was showing GDP growth predictions outside the Blue Chip Consensus. Right now, after unorthodox economic policies from the Trump II Administration, the EconomyNow model is predicting a drastic drop in GDP (the Financial Forecast Center is only predicting a slight drop here).

Climate Change

Another comparison for what I have presented above are the IPCC Emission Scenarios. These scenarios are for the World System. Needless to say, (1) the new Right-Wing Republican administration plans on withdrawing the US from all attempts to study or ameliorate Climate Change and (2) the IPCC does not produce any RW modes for the World System (but seem my forecasts here).

World System

The longest running set of data we have for the World-System is the Maddison Project based on the work of Angus Maddison (more information is available here). Data on production (Q) and population (N) for most countries and regions runs from years 0-2000. More data becomes available as we near the year 2000. 

Available data were entered in a spreadsheet (see Population above, double click to enlarge). Missing data were interpolated with nonlinear spline smoothing using the R programming Language.

In cases where initial values were not available (see GDP above), the E-M Algorithm was used to estimate initial conditions.

From the graph of GDP above (W_Q) for the World System, it can be seen that economic growth from the year 0-1500 was basically flat. The period of British Capitalism (after 1500) had a small plateau of growth. Takeoff does not happen until the Nineteenth Century.

From a system's perspective, the only model that can be tested for the entire period is Kenneth Boulding's Malthusian Systems Model [Q,N] = f[Q,N].

When developed as a State Space model (measurement matrix above) there are two components: W1=Growth and W2=(Q-N), the Malthusian Controller. When more data is available, the Malthusian Controller can be generalized to other SocioEconomic theories.

What the Malthusian Controller shows (plotted as Q-N above) is that a long-developing Malthusian Crisis (Q<N) started in the Late Middle Ages and accelerated through the period of British Capitalism (Dark Satanic Mills) and was reversed spectacularly during the Nineteenth Century.  Takeoff in response to a deepening Malthusian Crisis would not be an unreasonable way to view Modern Economic Growth.

Error Correcting Controllers (ECC)

In another post (here), I presented Leibenstein's Malthusian Error Correcting Controller (ECC). It can be generalized to the dominant ECCs in most theoretical economic models (above). These controllers can be further generalized. For example, (X-U) and (L-U) can be generalized to (N-U), a more general Urbanization Controller which describes market expansion for economic growth. In countries and periods with limited data, (N-U) might subsume all these processes. ECCs describe important feedback processes in SocioTechnical System that are typically not recognized as such in academic literature.

Kaya Identity

The basic theoretical model underlying all the World-System models I crate is the Kaya Identity. There are a number of advantages to starting theoretical development with the Kaya Identity: (1) An "identity" is true by definition Adding other variables to the model ensure that theory construction is on a solid footing. (2) The Kaya Identity is also used as the foundation for the IPCC Emissions Scenarios allowing a linkage between World-Systems Theory and the work of the IPCC.

World Development Indicators (WDI)

After WWII, extensive data sets on all countries in the World-System became available from the World Bank (here). The indicators above where chose to construct the state space for each WDI-based model. Addition indicators can be added for specific forecasts and analyses.

World-System (1950-2010) Trump Takes US on a Random Walk

In a prior post (here), I presented alternative futures for the US Economy. In terms of growth (the USL20 US1 state variable), the best models are the Business-As-Usual (BAU) model or the basic US state space model itself, both without input from the World System or other countries. From a statistician's perspective, this is the Make America Great Again (MAGA) model. Alternatively, the Random Walk (RW) model (history is just one damned thing after another) actually seems to be the best description of the Trump II administration's current (early) performance in office. Finally, from the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, see the Notes below), the best description of US Growth from (1950-2010) is the RW model.

Does all this make your head hurt? First, no one can know the future. This is why the IPCC presents Alternative Emission Scenarios (here) rather than forecasts for CO2 emissions. The unpredictability of the future is why the Trump II administration (to be charitable) is behaving randomly (here) even though their preferred future is the BAU model with the US dominating the World-System.

The RW is a well-known but little acknowledge business strategy and Trump is trying to run the US government as if it was a business. The business theory is that if you are too predictable in your behavior, your competitors can easily predict your behavior and set up against you. The Left Wing cannot predict what Trump will do next so it is impossible to develop a strategy against him. The approach is similar to the Gish Gallop debating style which is also used by Trump and is difficult to rebut.

How reasonable is the RW model as a description of US growth? In the graphic above, I ran eight simulations of the US1 RW model, starting in 1950. Two of the models produced an upward growth trend, one of the models produced collapse. The other models produced weak performance with a slight negative trend. So, there is about an 88% chance that random management of the US Economy will not produce a crisis and might even produce an upward trend. Those are pretty good odds for a businessmen willing to take large risks and who has no idea how to run a government.

As a comparison, I've done a similar analysis for Mexico (here) where the RW is also the best short-term model and for Canada (here and here) where the BAU model is best. Argentina also is a favorite of the Trump II Administration for it's slash-and-burn policy approach (here); the RW model is also a good competitor (AIC = 76.58) for Argentina (you can run the ARL20 BAU model here) or read the verbal discussion (here).

Notes

 Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for alternative models shows that the RW model is a strong competitor for US Growth, at least in the short-term.

You can run the USL20 BAU model here. It is also a strong competitor and produces uncontrolled exponential growth, a future growth path favored by many commentators.

 

State Space Model Estimation

The Measurement Matrix for the state space models was constructed using Principal Components Analysis with standardized data from the World Development Indicators. The statistical analysis was conducted in an extension of the dse package. The package is currently supported by an online portal (here) and can be downloaded, with the R-programming language, for any personal computer here. Code for the state space models is available on my Google drive (here) and referenced in each post.

Atlanta Fed Economy Now

My approach to forecasting is similar to the EconomyNow model used by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Since the new Republican Administration is signaling that they would like to eliminate the Federal Reserve, the app might well not be available in the future.

While the app is still available, there have been some interesting developments. In earlier forecasts, the Atlanta Fed was showing GDP growth predictions outside the Blue Chip Consensus. Right now, after unorthodox economic policies from the Trump II Administration, the EconomyNow model is predicting a drastic drop in GDP (the Financial Forecast Center is only predicting a slight drop here).

Climate Change

Another comparison for what I have presented above are the IPCC Emission Scenarios. These scenarios are for the World System. Needless to say, (1) the new Right-Wing Republican administration plans on withdrawing the US from all attempts to study or ameliorate Climate Change and (2) the IPCC does not produce any RW modes for the World System (but seem my forecasts here).

World-System (1960-2010) Mexico Takes a Random Walk

 

In an earlier post (here) I used the MXL20 model to forecast eight futures for Mexico in the 21st Century. The best model was the Business-As-Usual (BAU) Model, however, in the short-run (year-to-year) the Random Walk (RW) actually had the best Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

The shocks to the state variable MX1 (the Growth Shocks) are presented above. Mostly, the shocks are positive, except for around the turn of the Century (after 2000)*. In the short-run, year-to-year, the Mexican Economy has been able to continuously adjust to positive growth shocks. 

Notes

* The Growth Shocks are the residuals from the MX1_RW model. You should notice that the residuals are not normally distributed as are the residuals in the simulated MX1_RW presented at the beginning of the post. This is why I compute Bootstrap rather than normal distribution statistics.

AIC Statistics

World System: Generalizing the Malthusian Controller

 

In an earlier post (here), I presented Leibenstein's Malthusian Error Correcting Controller (ECC). It can be generalized to the dominant ECCs in most theoretical economic models (above). 

In future posts, where appropriate, I will explain each controller in more detail. The point to make here is that socio-economic systems are free to emphasize whatever controller seems appropriate during a particular historical period. It is an empirical matter to determine which controllers, if any,  are operating in a particular period. It is not something that can be deduced from theoretical speculation although historical analysis can reveal what was of most concern to elites. But, the historical analysis would just suggest a hypothesis.