What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East?

In the video above from CNBC, Dan Senor claims Israel is now the most important geopolitical power in the Middle East. The question in my mind is whether Israel as Regional Hegemon would be best for the people of the Middle East. In this post, I use the MEA_L20 and the IL_L20 models to test the conjecture.

Notes

State Space models of the Middle East in the R-programming language can be found here. Instructions for stabilizing each system are in the code. 

Hegemonic Dominance AIC Statistics

Has the Rule-Based World Order, started after World War II, collapsed?

The Rule-based Order (RBO or the Liberal International Order, LIO) seems to be ending, the proximate cause being the Make America Great Again (MAGA) policies of the Trump II Administration. However, there are long-term structural changes in World System Geopolitics that are the underlying cause.

The RBO was embedded in a hierarchy of institutions (graphic above) that were imposed by the Allies after the Great Depression and  World War II (see the video at the beginning of this post). Needless to say, the Axis Powers were forced to agree to the imposed structure and were not happy about it. Also, because this was a International Liberal Order (ILO), illiberal, right-wing movements in all countries were also not happy and have been working since World War II to modify and even destroy the system. Commentators (see the video above) have been arguing that they are about to succeed. 

A more positive interpretation is that RBO Institutions were are product of the 20th Century and had a number of problems given 20th Century technologies. The primary problem is that the institutions are not democratic; citizens in member countries have not direct input on how the rules are written, enforced and evaluated. The democracy problem does not bother authoritarian regimes, but it encourage autocratic countries to undermine and attempt to destroy the system. Since the Trump II Administration is autocratic, it has attacked everyone of the RBO institutions (see the policy actions listed below).

My proposal for modernizing Federal Agencies in the US (here) could also be applied to the RBO institutions. It involves bringing government agencies into the 21st Century. The basic proposal is (1) Restate agency missions and make goals measurable, (2) Allow citizens to analyze in real time (on a cell phone app) how agency performance is meeting goals, (3) Require agencies to justify policy actions and link them to measurable goals and (4) allow citizens to vote (on the app, whenever they want) on agency performance.

DISCLAIMER: my proposal will not solve everything (or maybe anything) but it will allow me to construct models for evaluating the RBO. In future posts, I will construct measurement models for each institution based on how I understand their goals. Without data and results to support themselves, RBO institutions are quire defenseless against illiberal attacks. 

For the World Bank, the IMF an the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the data is there and ready to be used to evaluate RBO institutions and member countries. 

For an example of my approach to evaluating institutions, see the Blog Roll on the US Federal Reserve.

Notes

How has the Trump II Administration tried to undermine and destroy the RBO Institutions:

• Tariffs and attacks on the WTO
• Withdrawal from treaties: the Nuclear Arms Treat (attack on NATO), the Paris Environmental Accords (attack on the IPCC)
• Invasion of Venezuela (attack on World Security)
• Threatening to invade Greenland )threats to World Security and European integrity)
• Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO)--later reversed.
• Criticism of European Allies and NATO
• Praise of authoritarian Leaders (Vladimir Putin, Victor Orban, etc.)

ChatGPT Summary:

 

Technological Long Waves

  

The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

• The Iranian Economy prior to 1979 and associated Tech Bubble.

Liberalsim vs. Neoliberalism

 

I have been trying to reconcile Liberalism with Neoliberalism and put the two within David Easton's Political System. My reconciliation is:

Neoliberalism was very specific about specifying required values for Political Outputs, Liberalism less so. However, the Liberalism positions an be "filled in" by contrast to available Neoliberal positions.

First,  I'll summarize Easton's model and then go on to expand on his Political Outputs. Finally, I'll ask what Political Inuts and Feedback have to do with Liberal and Neoliberal models.

 

Notes

ChatGPT

Feature	Liberalism	Neoliberalism
Time period	18th-19th century origins	Late 20th century
Primary goal	Broad individual freedom	Market efficiency & competition
View of the state	Limited but essential for rights	Minimal, facilitator of markets
Markets	Useful but not absolute	Central organizing principle
Social policy	Some support for welfare	Shrink welfare; use market mechanisms
Freedom	Civil and political freedom	Freedom as market choice
Attitude toward inequality	Liberties more important, but some thinkers favor moderation	Often accepts inequality as necessary

World-System (1960-present) How will a Negative Shock from the US Affect the Economy of Venezuela?

Nov 16, 2025. NBC News is reporting (here) that:

The nation’s most advanced aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday in a display of U.S. military power, raising questions about what the new influx of troops and weaponry could signal for the Trump administration’s drug enforcement campaign in South America.

If the US were to take some kind of military action against Venezuela (whatever the pretext), the result would be a strong negative shock to the Economy of Venezuela, which has been through many shocks in the late 20th and early 21st Centuries. According to Wikipedia (here):

An ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis began in Venezuela during the presidency of Hugo Chávez and has worsened during the presidency of successor Nicolás Maduro. It has been marked by hyperinflation, escalating starvation, disease, crime, and mortality rates, resulting in massive emigration.

The VEL20 US-input model (see the Notes below) is based on 50 years of data (1960-2010) drawn from the World Development Indicators (see the Boiler Plate). Without knowing the extent of the shock or whether it might actually happen, we can at least assume that the shock will be negative and ask how the economy has behaved to a large, standardize shock in the past.

The graphic above shows a one standard deviation negative shock (Impulse Response) to the state of the Venezuelan Economy transmitted from the US (see the Measurement Models in the Notes below):

• The First Column shows the effect of a negative shock from US Overall Growth (US1) to (1) VE1, Overall Growth in the Venezuelan Economy (continuing negative effect), (2) VE2, the GDP-Unemployment Controller (continuing negative effect) and (3) VE3, the Environmental Controller (temporary positive effect).
• The Second Column shows the effect of US Financial Markets (US2) on (1) VE1, Overall Growth (temporary positive), (2) VE2, Unemployment (continuing positive effect) and (3) VE3, Environmental (continuing negative effect).
• The Third Column shows the effect of US Globalization (US3) on (1) VE1, Overall Growth (permanent negative), (2) VE2, GDP (continuing negative) and (3) VE3, Environmental (continuing negative).

The overall effect, as might be anticipated, of US military action would be very negative for the Economy of Venezuela, one more negative shock in a long history of negative shocks. The Trump II Administration would probably argue that, in the long run, the effects would be positive if the illegitimate Administration of President Nicolás Maduro were ended. Everything depends on what would happen after any military action and no one knows the future.

One possibility (which seems unlikely) is that Venezuela would return to Business-As-Usual (BAU) with a competent Centrist, technocratic Administration. You can experiment yourself with the VEL20 BAU model (here) and explore various scenarios.

Notes

For more information on other Geopolitical Options, see the Venezuelan Blog Roll (here). For more information about how the Dynamic Component State Space models were constructed, see the Boiler Plate.

VEL20 Measurement Model

USL203 Measurement Model

VEL20 US Input System Matrices

 

 

World System, Economic Systems, Political Systems and Neoliberalism

 

I've always been both impressed and confused by David Easton's model of the Political System: Impressed because of the System's Perspetive and Confused  because it does not seem to match my concrete experience with the Political System in the US which right now seems to be dominated by Neoliberalism. In the post, I'm going to put the two ideas together and sort out the result.

Notes

ChatGPT Definitions

Political System

Economic System

Neoliberalism

World-System (0-2000) What Caused the Industrial Revolution?

                 

The graphic above is a time plot of World Aggregate Production (W_Q) taken from Maddison (see the Boiler Pate).  The growth of Capitalism is typically data from 1500-Present with a clear visible take-off starting in the 19th Century. The burning question is "Why"!

ChatGPT (an AI Systems) produces the graphic above as an answer to the question "What Caused the Industrial Revolution".*** One can quibble with some of the links in the graph ("Why aren't Profits plowed back into the production process?", "What about Environmental Impacts?", etc.), but the graph is a good place to start.

The Kaya Identity is another good place to start (notice the Kaya Identity does not have feedback loops).

The causes of the Industrial Revolution are not possible to consider in one post, but I think there is a causal explanation that has been missed and I will investigate it in future posts.

Notes

*** Actually, my question was about feedback loops in the Industrial Revolution but you can asked the "What Caused" question yourself here. Google AI provides the following answer:

AI Overview

The main causes of the Industrial Revolution include 

• a combination of the Agricultural Revolution, which freed up labor and increased foodproduction;
• technological innovations like the steam engine and new machinery that mechanized production;
• access to natural resources such as coal and iron;
• economic and political factors like capitalism, available capital, and supportive government policies;
• and an increase in population growth and made, which created both a work force and demand for goods.

Agricultural advancements

The enclosure movement:Landowners consolidated smaller plots of land, making farming more efficient and forcing many rural laborers to seek work in cities.

New farming techniques:Innovations like Jethro Tull's seed drill increased crop yields, supporting a larger population.

Technological innovation

New inventions:

Key inventions like the spinning jenny, water frame, and steam engine revolutionized production in the textile and other industries.

Mechanization:

Machines could produce goods faster and more cheaply than by hand, leading to the development of the factory system.

Economic and political factors

Capitalism:

An economic system with private property and free enterprise encouraged investment and risk-taking.

Available capital:

A large amount of money was available for investment in new businesses and technologies.

Supportive government:

Policies, such as those protecting property rights and patents, encouraged innovation and industrial growth.

Abundant natural resources:

Britain, the birthplace of the revolution, had large deposits of coal for power and iron for machinery, often located near waterways for transport.

Growing population:

Population growth provided both a large workforce for factories and a bigger market for consumer goods.

Improved transportation:

Systems like canals and later railroads made it cheaper and faster to transport raw materials and finished products.

References