Your Brain is NOT a simple Input-Output Model

 

Notes

• We Have Consciousness All Wrong The brain is not a powerful supercomputer; there is not enough energy input for that! The brain is a "prediction engine" and you are living in it's best guess about reality!

Classical Economic Models

If you have taken ECON 101 in College, you are unlikely to have read the Classical Economists: Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, or Joseph Schumpeter (photos above). 

And, you have probably not even read 20th Century economists John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman (photos above).

They were all interesting writers and should be part of the College curriculum, but maybe that is too much to ask. There is just too much to read in the 21st Century (you didn't read Albert Einstein in PHYSICS 101 or Sigmund Freud in PSYCH101, either). Their thinking has been distilled into models (the same as Einstein's thinking was distilled into

In this post I'll provide a list of models that you run using the R Programming language on my Google site.

• The Limits to Growth  Jay Wright Forrester's World 1 model that started the The Limits to Growth (LTG) movement.  The 1972 report discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. Classical Economists understood "limits to growth" but the idea was lost under Neoclassical Economics in the 20th Century.
• The Malthusian Model
• The Leibenstein Malthusian Model
• The Leibenstein Generalized Model
• The Leibenstein Controller Model
• The Adam Smith Model and the Smith Controller.
• The Adam Smith Small Country Model.
• The Adam Smith Exponential Growth Model
• The Schumpeter Model 
• The Marxian Steady-State Model 
• The Marxian Collapse Model
• The Marxian Cyclical Model
• The David Ricardo Cyclical Model
• IPCC Kaya Scenarios
• Kaya Growth State Space Models

 

Historical Controller Models

Classic References

These works are available on line:

• Adam Smith Wealth of Nations
• Malthus An Essay on the Principal of Population
• Malthus Principles of Political Economy
• Ricardo Collected Works
• Marx Collected Works
• JS Mill Collected Works
• JM Keynes The Collected Writings
  
• Milton Friedman Major Works

R. E. Kalman and Systems Theory

Kalman's System Theoretic Critique of Economics

Kalman, R.  E. (2007)  A system-theoretic critique of dynamic economic models

Google AI

 

Quantitative-Historical Models of Societal Development

Notes

DSE Models

 

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World-System (1800-1900): Malthus and Marx, Together Again.

Karl Marx (1818-1883) had a harsh and critical attitude toward the economic and demographic ideas of Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834). Marx's criticism was so devastating that one might conclude that the ideas of these two Classical economists could not possibly exist in the same state space. But they can!

Notes

 

What is TechnoFeudalism?

TechnoFeudalism is a term that seems to have been coined by Yanis Varoufakis (see the AI Overview below) to describe the next Stage of Capitalism dominated by Big Tech Platforms. Since we currently do not have a very clear vision of the future (or even how our current societies are being run), it seems worthwhile to flesh out this vision without dwelling on the obvious criticisms (but see below).**

• Natural Resources from Space Exploration
• Robotics
• Government on a Cellphone
• Biotechnology and Tech medicine
• AI Automation
• 
  

Notes

** An alternative vision for the Future is the Steady-State Economy, "...an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time..." If the TechnoFeudal economy fails (for a long list of practical constraints), some version of the Steady-State Economy might be the default (with some good ideas from the Feudal Lords).

 

How Do We Measure the State of a Social System?

 

In A New York Times article (May 26, 2026) titled G.D.P. Is a Flawed Measure of Prosperity. Alternatives Are on the Way, Lydia DePillis documents our continuing fixation with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of societal performance. The AI Overview (above) defines System State based on the Purpose of the System. For the purpose of a Capitalist System, GDP is great. But, not everyone lives in a Capitalist System and, for those that do, not everyone benefits from GDP and the profits and wages it creates. In this post, I will look at at GDP as a measure of Societal Performance from the standpoint of the World System and the WL20 model (a State Variable model).

Full Disclosure: This is my chance for Defending the use of State Space Models for analyzing Societal Development.

Notes

Pasdirtz, G. (1981)  Instability and Late Nineteenth Century German Development

Kalman, R.  E. (2006)   A System-Theoretic Critique of Dynamic Economic Models 

WL20 Correlation Matrix

Presented above is the correlation matrix for the fourteen indicators I have used in the WL203 Model. From one perspective, it is ridiculous to think that fourteen indicators can define the state of a system with (currently) 8.3 Billion people and 195 countries. On the other hand, GDP is one of the indicators and we routinely summarize the state of the World Economy using GDP alone!

Things to notice:

• All the indicators are highly correlated. The only indicator that has some low correlations is the Living Planet Index.
• GWP (Gross World Product) is highly correlated with all the other indicators!
• There are lots of interesting correlations in the matrix but is there some way to reduce the complexity of the information to hep define the state of the World System? 

WL20 Data Definitions

• Ecological Footprint measures human demand on natural capital, i.e. the quantity of nature it takes to support people and their economies.
• KOF Globalization Index an index of the degree of globalisation of 122 countries.
• Living Planet Index an indicator of the state of global biodiversity, based on trends in vertebrate populations of species from around the world. The Zoological Society of London (ZSL) manages the index in cooperation with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

WL20 Measurement Model

WL20 Time Plot and Predictions

WL20 Forecast

WL20 System Matrix

WL20 Attractor Path