State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

What is TechnoFeudalism?



TechnoFeudalism is a term that seems to have been coined by Yanis Varoufakis (see the AI Overview below) to describe the next Stage of Capitalism dominated by Big Tech Platforms. Since we currently do not have a very clear vision of the future (or even how our current societies are being run), it seems worthwhile to flesh out this vision without dwelling on the obvious criticisms (but see below).**


  • Natural Resources from Space Exploration
  • Robotics
  • Government on a Cellphone
  • Biotechnology and Tech medicine
  • AI Automation




Notes


** An alternative vision for the Future is the Steady-State Economy, "...an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time..." If the TechnoFeudal economy fails (for a long list of practical constraints), some version of the Steady-State Economy might be the default (with some good ideas from the Feudal Lords).






 

How Do We Measure the State of a Social System?

 


In A New York Times article (May 26, 2026) titled G.D.P. Is a Flawed Measure of Prosperity. Alternatives Are on the Way, Lydia DePillis documents our continuing fixation with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of societal performance. The AI Overview (above) defines System State based on the Purpose of the System. For the purpose of a Capitalist System, GDP is great. But, not everyone lives in a Capitalist System and, for those that do, not everyone benefits from GDP and the profits and wages it creates. In this post, I will look at at GDP as a measure of Societal Performance from the standpoint of the World System and the WL20 model (a State Variable model).

Full Disclosure: This is my chance for Defending the use of State Space Models for analyzing Societal Development.




Notes



WL20 Correlation Matrix


Presented above is the correlation matrix for the fourteen indicators I have used in the WL203 Model. From one perspective, it is ridiculous to think that fourteen indicators can define the state of a system with (currently) 8.3 Billion people and 195 countries. On the other hand, GDP is one of the indicators and we routinely summarize the state of the World Economy using GDP alone!

Things to notice:
  • All the indicators are highly correlated. The only indicator that has some low correlations is the Living Planet Index.
  • GWP (Gross World Product) is highly correlated with all the other indicators!
  • There are lots of interesting correlations in the matrix but is there some way to reduce the complexity of the information to hep define the state of the World System? 

WL20 Data Definitions




WL20 Measurement Model



WL20 Time Plot and Predictions




WL20 Forecast






WL20 System Matrix



WL20 Attractor Path