All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.
Google AI goes on to give arguments for and against Israel as a Middle East Hegemon (see the Notes below). What do the state space models predict?
Using variants of the IL_L20 Model with different inputs, the best model for the Middle East (MEA) was Business-as-Usual (BAU) Input from Israel.
COMMENT: Here is a case (and there are certainly many others) where the best outcome for a given population (the People of the Middle East and North Africa) is not going to happen, at least in the short-term.
And, the available steady-options seem equally out of reach. The absence of realistic Geopolitical Options leaves the Middle-East in turmoil for the foreseeable future.
Notes
State Space models of the Middle East in the R-programming language can be found here. Instructions for stabilizing each system are in the code.
The RBO was embedded in a hierarchy of institutions (graphic above) that were imposed by the Allies after the Great Depression and World War II (see the video at the beginning of this post). Needless to say, the Axis Powers were forced to agree to the imposed structure and were not happy about it. Also, because this was a International Liberal Order (ILO), illiberal, right-wing movements in all countries were also not happy and have been working since World War II to modify and even destroy the system. Commentators (see the video above) have been arguing that they are about to succeed.
A more positive interpretation is that RBO Institutions were are product of the 20th Century and had a number of problems given 20th Century technologies. The primary problem is that the institutions are not democratic; citizens in member countries have not direct input on how the rules are written, enforced and evaluated. The democracy problem does not bother authoritarian regimes, but it encourage autocratic countries to undermine and attempt to destroy the system. Since the Trump II Administrationis autocratic, it has attacked everyone of the RBO institutions (see the policy actions listed below).
My proposal for modernizing Federal Agencies in the US (here) could also be applied to the RBO institutions. It involves bringing government agencies into the 21st Century. The basic proposal is (1) Restate agency missions and make goals measurable, (2) Allow citizens to analyze in real time (on a cell phone app) how agency performance is meeting goals, (3) Require agencies to justify policy actions and link them to measurable goals and (4) allow citizens to vote (on the app, whenever they want) on agency performance.
DISCLAIMER: my proposal will not solve everything (or maybe anything) but it will allow me to construct models for evaluating the RBO. In future posts, I will construct measurement models for each institution based on how I understand their goals. Without data and results to support themselves, RBO institutions are quire defenseless against illiberal attacks.
For the World Bank, the IMF an the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the data is there and ready to be used to evaluate RBO institutions and member countries.
