World-System 1540: John Dee makes a Growth Forecast for England

 

In a prior post (here), John Dee had given Henry VIII a forecast for World System growth. The forecast was not well received. "Who canst fathom a World System?" Henry mumbled as Master Thomas Cromwell led Dee out of the King's chambers, from where Dee returned to his library to divine his next steps. 

Henry had asked for something more specific, a forecast for England for example. Dee twirled his protractor, consulted the Angels and came up with the forecasts in the graphic above, unaccountably plagiarized from both my WL16 model and my UKL16 Model. Dee appropriated the original UK1 data (dark line above) and three forecasts: the Random Walk (RW, history is just one damned thing after another), the Business as Usual (BAU) model and a model using the World System state variables (W) as inputs.

Dee was a little nervous about the forecasts, so he presented them first to Cromwell. Cromwell was shocked; there was the World System forecast again (the one Henry did not understand) and now Dee had shown it to be far superior to the more reasonable BAU (England goes it alone) forecast. And having looked into the Future, Dee concluded that England would pursue the BAU path at least to the 1600s (if not to the present and here).

"Dr. Dee, you will have to present the forecast yourself to the King. I needst not be asked to render my opinion." History did not record the meeting between Henry VIII and Dr. Dee but Dee did not lose his head (Cromwell thought "...he will have his head loosed from his shoulders...") and managed to outlive both Henry and Cromwell (John Dee died in poverty and obscurity either in 1608 or 1609). History has recorded Dee's attempts to consult the Angels and explain Henry's failed marriages in terms of Geopolitical divinations. I will report those analyses in future posts. 

Season 2, Episode 2 of Wolf Hall aired last Sunday night and brought out some of the issues with the importance of marriages in forming Geopolitical Alliances and stabilizing the Balance of Power System. Henry VIII's daughter with Catherine of Aragon was Princess Mary Tudor (Lilit Lesser in Wolf Hall above). At the same time, Margaret Douglas, Countess of Lennox, was involved in a secret marriage that was not approved by the King. Princess Mary was Henry's link to the Habsburg Monarchy (Austria/Spain) and Margaret Douglas was Henry's link to Scotland which became part of the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707 (more here). I will investigate all these Geopolitical Alliances in future posts.

Season 2, Episode 3 of Wolf Hall premiers this Sunday (April 6, 2025) and it begins Thomas Cromwell's fall from power. Not to be missed! You can stream Season2, Episode 3, Defiance or watch it over the air on Sunday.

Notes

More information about the World-System models can be found in the Boiler Plate.