R. E. Kalman and Systems Theory

Kalman's System Theoretic Critique of Economics

Kalman, R.  E. (2007)  A system-theoretic critique of dynamic economic models

Google AI

 

Quantitative-Historical Models of Societal Development

Notes

DSE Models

 

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World-System (1800-1900): Malthus and Marx, Together Again.

Karl Marx (1818-1883) had a harsh and critical attitude toward the economic and demographic ideas of Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834). Marx's criticism was so devastating that one might conclude that the ideas of these two Classical economists could not possibly exist in the same state space. But they can!

Notes

 

What is TechnoFeudalism?

TechnoFeudalism is a term that seems to have been coined by Yanis Varoufakis (see the AI Overview below) to describe the next Stage of Capitalism dominated by Big Tech Platforms. Since we currently do not have a very clear vision of the future (or even how our current societies are being run), it seems worthwhile to flesh out this vision without dwelling on the obvious criticisms (but see below).**

• Natural Resources from Space Exploration
• Robotics
• Government on a Cellphone
• Biotechnology and Tech medicine
• AI Automation
• 
  

Notes

** An alternative vision for the Future is the Steady-State Economy, "...an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time..." If the TechnoFeudal economy fails (for a long list of practical constraints), some version of the Steady-State Economy might be the default (with some good ideas from the Feudal Lords).

 

How Do We Measure the State of a Social System?

 

In A New York Times article (May 26, 2026) titled G.D.P. Is a Flawed Measure of Prosperity. Alternatives Are on the Way, Lydia DePillis documents our continuing fixation with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of societal performance. The AI Overview (above) defines System State based on the Purpose of the System. For the purpose of a Capitalist System, GDP is great. But, not everyone lives in a Capitalist System and, for those that do, not everyone benefits from GDP and the profits and wages it creates. In this post, I will look at at GDP as a measure of Societal Performance from the standpoint of the World System and the WL20 model (a State Variable model).

Full Disclosure: This is my chance for Defending the use of State Space Models for analyzing Societal Development.

Notes

Pasdirtz, G. (1981)  Instability and Late Nineteenth Century German Development

Kalman, R.  E. (2006)   A System-Theoretic Critique of Dynamic Economic Models 

WL20 Correlation Matrix

Presented above is the correlation matrix for the fourteen indicators I have used in the WL203 Model. From one perspective, it is ridiculous to think that fourteen indicators can define the state of a system with (currently) 8.3 Billion people and 195 countries. On the other hand, GDP is one of the indicators and we routinely summarize the state of the World Economy using GDP alone!

Things to notice:

• All the indicators are highly correlated. The only indicator that has some low correlations is the Living Planet Index.
• GWP (Gross World Product) is highly correlated with all the other indicators!
• There are lots of interesting correlations in the matrix but is there some way to reduce the complexity of the information to hep define the state of the World System? 

WL20 Data Definitions

• Ecological Footprint measures human demand on natural capital, i.e. the quantity of nature it takes to support people and their economies.
• KOF Globalization Index an index of the degree of globalisation of 122 countries.
• Living Planet Index an indicator of the state of global biodiversity, based on trends in vertebrate populations of species from around the world. The Zoological Society of London (ZSL) manages the index in cooperation with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

WL20 Measurement Model

WL20 Time Plot and Predictions

WL20 Forecast

WL20 System Matrix

WL20 Attractor Path

Failed Wars, Right-Wing Radicalism and the White Power Movement

Notes

U. of Chicago, Harper Lecture (March 31, 2021)  The White Power Movement and Paramilitary America

Fontana et. al  (2016) Historical Roots of Political Extremism: Nazi Occupation of Italy

Wikipedia Links

Kathlee Belew (born November 11, 1981) is an American tenured associate professor of history at Northwestern University, and an international authority on the white power movement.

What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East?

In the video above from CNBC, Dan Senor claims Israel is now the most important geopolitical power in the Middle East. The question in my mind is whether Israel as Regional Hegemon would be best for the people of the Middle East. In this post, I use the MEA_L20 and the IL_L20 models to test the conjecture.

Google AI reports the following:

Google AI goes on to give arguments for and against Israel as a Middle East Hegemon (see the Notes below). What do the state space models predict?

Using variants of the IL_L20 Model with different inputs, the best model for the Middle East (MEA) was Business-as-Usual (BAU) Input from Israel.

COMMENT: Here is a case (and there are certainly many others) where the best outcome for a given population (the People of the Middle East and North Africa) is not going to happen, at least in the short-term.

And, the available steady-options seem equally out of reach. The absence of realistic Geopolitical Options leaves the Middle-East in turmoil for the foreseeable future.

Notes

State Space models of the Middle East in the R-programming language can be found here. Instructions for stabilizing each system are in the code. 

Chapuisat (2025) Hegemony or Normalization: Israel’s Future in the Middle East

Law and Liberty (2025) The Era of Israeli Hegemony?

Mirisch, J (2025) Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters?

Blog Roll: Israel

Arguments Against Israeli Hegemony

• Lack of Legitimacy Israel is not accepted as a regional leader.
• Scale Limitations As a country, Israel is too small to dominate the Middle East.
• Dependency on the US Israel is seen as a US Proxy.
• Resistance and Counterbalancing Neighboring states would form aliances against Israeli dominance.

Arguments For Israeli Hegemony

• Military Superiority It would be a fragile, military balance of power.
• Alignment of Interests A safeguard against Radical Islam.
• The Abraham Accords established Diplomatic relations between Israel and other Middle-Eastern Countries.

Hegemonic Dominance AIC Statistics