Your Brain is NOT a simple Input-Output Model

 

Notes

• We Have Consciousness All Wrong The brain is not a powerful supercomputer; there is not enough energy input for that! The brain is a "prediction engine" and you are living in it's best guess about reality!

Classical Economic Models

If you have taken ECON 101 in College, you are unlikely to have read the Classical Economists: Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, or Joseph Schumpeter (photos above). 

And, you have probably not even read 20th Century economists John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman (photos above).

They were all interesting writers and should be part of the College curriculum, but maybe that is too much to ask. There is just too much to read in the 21st Century (you didn't read Albert Einstein in PHYSICS 101 or Sigmund Freud in PSYCH101, either). Their thinking has been distilled into models (the same as Einstein's thinking was distilled into

In this post I'll provide a list of models that you run using the R Programming language on my Google site.

• The Limits to Growth  Jay Wright Forrester's World 1 model that started the The Limits to Growth (LTG) movement.  The 1972 report discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. Classical Economists understood "limits to growth" but the idea was lost under Neoclassical Economics in the 20th Century.
• The Malthusian Model
• The Leibenstein Malthusian Model
• The Leibenstein Generalized Model
• The Leibenstein Controller Model
• The Adam Smith Model and the Smith Controller.
• The Adam Smith Small Country Model.
• The Adam Smith Exponential Growth Model
• The Schumpeter Model 
• The Marxian Steady-State Model 
• The Marxian Collapse Model
• The Marxian Cyclical Model
• The David Ricardo Cyclical Model
• IPCC Kaya Scenarios
• Kaya Growth State Space Models

 

Historical Controller Models

Classic References

These works are available on line:

• Adam Smith Wealth of Nations
• Malthus An Essay on the Principal of Population
• Malthus Principles of Political Economy
• Ricardo Collected Works
• Marx Collected Works
• JS Mill Collected Works
• JM Keynes The Collected Writings
  
• Milton Friedman Major Works

R. E. Kalman and Systems Theory

Kalman's System Theoretic Critique of Economics

Kalman, R.  E. (2007)  A system-theoretic critique of dynamic economic models

Google AI

 

Quantitative-Historical Models of Societal Development

Notes

DSE Models

 

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World-System (1800-1900): Malthus and Marx, Together Again.

Karl Marx (1818-1883) had a harsh and critical attitude toward the economic and demographic ideas of Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834). Marx's criticism was so devastating that one might conclude that the ideas of these two Classical economists could not possibly exist in the same state space. But they can!

Notes

 

What is TechnoFeudalism?

TechnoFeudalism is a term that seems to have been coined by Yanis Varoufakis (see the AI Overview below) to describe the next Stage of Capitalism dominated by Big Tech Platforms. Since we currently do not have a very clear vision of the future (or even how our current societies are being run), it seems worthwhile to flesh out this vision without dwelling on the obvious criticisms (but see below).**

• Natural Resources from Space Exploration
• Robotics
• Government on a Cellphone
• Biotechnology and Tech medicine
• AI Automation
• 
  

Notes

** An alternative vision for the Future is the Steady-State Economy, "...an economy made up of a constant stock of physical wealth (capital) and a constant population size. In effect, such an economy does not grow in the course of time..." If the TechnoFeudal economy fails (for a long list of practical constraints), some version of the Steady-State Economy might be the default (with some good ideas from the Feudal Lords).

 

How Do We Measure the State of a Social System?

 

In A New York Times article (May 26, 2026) titled G.D.P. Is a Flawed Measure of Prosperity. Alternatives Are on the Way, Lydia DePillis documents our continuing fixation with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as a measure of societal performance. The AI Overview (above) defines System State based on the Purpose of the System. For the purpose of a Capitalist System, GDP is great. But, not everyone lives in a Capitalist System and, for those that do, not everyone benefits from GDP and the profits and wages it creates. In this post, I will look at at GDP as a measure of Societal Performance from the standpoint of the World System and the WL20 model (a State Variable model).

Full Disclosure: This is my chance for Defending the use of State Space Models for analyzing Societal Development.

Notes

Pasdirtz, G. (1981)  Instability and Late Nineteenth Century German Development

Kalman, R.  E. (2006)   A System-Theoretic Critique of Dynamic Economic Models 

WL20 Correlation Matrix

Presented above is the correlation matrix for the fourteen indicators I have used in the WL203 Model. From one perspective, it is ridiculous to think that fourteen indicators can define the state of a system with (currently) 8.3 Billion people and 195 countries. On the other hand, GDP is one of the indicators and we routinely summarize the state of the World Economy using GDP alone!

Things to notice:

• All the indicators are highly correlated. The only indicator that has some low correlations is the Living Planet Index.
• GWP (Gross World Product) is highly correlated with all the other indicators!
• There are lots of interesting correlations in the matrix but is there some way to reduce the complexity of the information to hep define the state of the World System? 

WL20 Data Definitions

• Ecological Footprint measures human demand on natural capital, i.e. the quantity of nature it takes to support people and their economies.
• KOF Globalization Index an index of the degree of globalisation of 122 countries.
• Living Planet Index an indicator of the state of global biodiversity, based on trends in vertebrate populations of species from around the world. The Zoological Society of London (ZSL) manages the index in cooperation with the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).

WL20 Measurement Model

WL20 Time Plot and Predictions

WL20 Forecast

WL20 System Matrix

WL20 Attractor Path

Failed Wars, Right-Wing Radicalism and the White Power Movement

Notes

U. of Chicago, Harper Lecture (March 31, 2021)  The White Power Movement and Paramilitary America

Fontana et. al  (2016) Historical Roots of Political Extremism: Nazi Occupation of Italy

Wikipedia Links

Kathlee Belew (born November 11, 1981) is an American tenured associate professor of history at Northwestern University, and an international authority on the white power movement.

What If Israel was the Hegemonic Leader of the Middle East?

In the video above from CNBC, Dan Senor claims Israel is now the most important geopolitical power in the Middle East. The question in my mind is whether Israel as Regional Hegemon would be best for the people of the Middle East. In this post, I use the MEA_L20 and the IL_L20 models to test the conjecture.

Google AI reports the following:

Google AI goes on to give arguments for and against Israel as a Middle East Hegemon (see the Notes below). What do the state space models predict?

Using variants of the IL_L20 Model with different inputs, the best model for the Middle East (MEA) was Business-as-Usual (BAU) Input from Israel.

COMMENT: Here is a case (and there are certainly many others) where the best outcome for a given population (the People of the Middle East and North Africa) is not going to happen, at least in the short-term.

And, the available steady-options seem equally out of reach. The absence of realistic Geopolitical Options leaves the Middle-East in turmoil for the foreseeable future.

Notes

State Space models of the Middle East in the R-programming language can be found here. Instructions for stabilizing each system are in the code. 

Chapuisat (2025) Hegemony or Normalization: Israel’s Future in the Middle East

Law and Liberty (2025) The Era of Israeli Hegemony?

Mirisch, J (2025) Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters?

Blog Roll: Israel

Arguments Against Israeli Hegemony

• Lack of Legitimacy Israel is not accepted as a regional leader.
• Scale Limitations As a country, Israel is too small to dominate the Middle East.
• Dependency on the US Israel is seen as a US Proxy.
• Resistance and Counterbalancing Neighboring states would form aliances against Israeli dominance.

Arguments For Israeli Hegemony

• Military Superiority It would be a fragile, military balance of power.
• Alignment of Interests A safeguard against Radical Islam.
• The Abraham Accords established Diplomatic relations between Israel and other Middle-Eastern Countries.

Hegemonic Dominance AIC Statistics

Has the Rule-Based World Order, started after World War II, collapsed?

The Rule-based Order (RBO or the Liberal International Order, LIO) seems to be ending, the proximate cause being the Make America Great Again (MAGA) policies of the Trump II Administration. However, there are long-term structural changes in World System Geopolitics that are the underlying cause.

The RBO was embedded in a hierarchy of institutions (graphic above) that were imposed by the Allies after the Great Depression and  World War II (see the video at the beginning of this post). Needless to say, the Axis Powers were forced to agree to the imposed structure and were not happy about it. Also, because this was a International Liberal Order (ILO), illiberal, right-wing movements in all countries were also not happy and have been working since World War II to modify and even destroy the system. Commentators (see the video above) have been arguing that they are about to succeed. 

A more positive interpretation is that RBO Institutions were are product of the 20th Century and had a number of problems given 20th Century technologies. The primary problem is that the institutions are not democratic; citizens in member countries have not direct input on how the rules are written, enforced and evaluated. The democracy problem does not bother authoritarian regimes, but it encourage autocratic countries to undermine and attempt to destroy the system. Since the Trump II Administration is autocratic, it has attacked everyone of the RBO institutions (see the policy actions listed below).

My proposal for modernizing Federal Agencies in the US (here) could also be applied to the RBO institutions. It involves bringing government agencies into the 21st Century. The basic proposal is (1) Restate agency missions and make goals measurable, (2) Allow citizens to analyze in real time (on a cell phone app) how agency performance is meeting goals, (3) Require agencies to justify policy actions and link them to measurable goals and (4) allow citizens to vote (on the app, whenever they want) on agency performance.

DISCLAIMER: my proposal will not solve everything (or maybe anything) but it will allow me to construct models for evaluating the RBO. In future posts, I will construct measurement models for each institution based on how I understand their goals. Without data and results to support themselves, RBO institutions are quire defenseless against illiberal attacks. 

For the World Bank, the IMF an the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the data is there and ready to be used to evaluate RBO institutions and member countries. 

For an example of my approach to evaluating institutions, see the Blog Roll on the US Federal Reserve.

Notes

How has the Trump II Administration tried to undermine and destroy the RBO Institutions:

• Tariffs and attacks on the WTO
• Withdrawal from treaties: the Nuclear Arms Treat (attack on NATO), the Paris Environmental Accords (attack on the IPCC)
• Invasion of Venezuela (attack on World Security)
• Threatening to invade Greenland )threats to World Security and European integrity)
• Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO)--later reversed.
• Criticism of European Allies and NATO
• Praise of authoritarian Leaders (Vladimir Putin, Victor Orban, etc.)

ChatGPT Summary:

 

Technological Long Waves

  

The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is partially consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly if we do not assume a functional form for exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I can present some examples.

• The Iranian Economy prior to 1979 and associated Tech Bubble.

Liberalsim vs. Neoliberalism

 

I have been trying to reconcile Liberalism with Neoliberalism and put the two within David Easton's Political System. My reconciliation is:

Neoliberalism was very specific about specifying required values for Political Outputs, Liberalism less so. However, the Liberalism positions an be "filled in" by contrast to available Neoliberal positions.

First,  I'll summarize Easton's model and then go on to expand on his Political Outputs. Finally, I'll ask what Political Inuts and Feedback have to do with Liberal and Neoliberal models.

 

Notes

ChatGPT

Feature	Liberalism	Neoliberalism
Time period	18th-19th century origins	Late 20th century
Primary goal	Broad individual freedom	Market efficiency & competition
View of the state	Limited but essential for rights	Minimal, facilitator of markets
Markets	Useful but not absolute	Central organizing principle
Social policy	Some support for welfare	Shrink welfare; use market mechanisms
Freedom	Civil and political freedom	Freedom as market choice
Attitude toward inequality	Liberties more important, but some thinkers favor moderation	Often accepts inequality as necessary

World-System (1960-present) How will a Negative Shock from the US Affect the Economy of Venezuela?

Nov 16, 2025. NBC News is reporting (here) that:

The nation’s most advanced aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday in a display of U.S. military power, raising questions about what the new influx of troops and weaponry could signal for the Trump administration’s drug enforcement campaign in South America.

If the US were to take some kind of military action against Venezuela (whatever the pretext), the result would be a strong negative shock to the Economy of Venezuela, which has been through many shocks in the late 20th and early 21st Centuries. According to Wikipedia (here):

An ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis began in Venezuela during the presidency of Hugo Chávez and has worsened during the presidency of successor Nicolás Maduro. It has been marked by hyperinflation, escalating starvation, disease, crime, and mortality rates, resulting in massive emigration.

The VEL20 US-input model (see the Notes below) is based on 50 years of data (1960-2010) drawn from the World Development Indicators (see the Boiler Plate). Without knowing the extent of the shock or whether it might actually happen, we can at least assume that the shock will be negative and ask how the economy has behaved to a large, standardize shock in the past.

The graphic above shows a one standard deviation negative shock (Impulse Response) to the state of the Venezuelan Economy transmitted from the US (see the Measurement Models in the Notes below):

• The First Column shows the effect of a negative shock from US Overall Growth (US1) to (1) VE1, Overall Growth in the Venezuelan Economy (continuing negative effect), (2) VE2, the GDP-Unemployment Controller (continuing negative effect) and (3) VE3, the Environmental Controller (temporary positive effect).
• The Second Column shows the effect of US Financial Markets (US2) on (1) VE1, Overall Growth (temporary positive), (2) VE2, Unemployment (continuing positive effect) and (3) VE3, Environmental (continuing negative effect).
• The Third Column shows the effect of US Globalization (US3) on (1) VE1, Overall Growth (permanent negative), (2) VE2, GDP (continuing negative) and (3) VE3, Environmental (continuing negative).

The overall effect, as might be anticipated, of US military action would be very negative for the Economy of Venezuela, one more negative shock in a long history of negative shocks. The Trump II Administration would probably argue that, in the long run, the effects would be positive if the illegitimate Administration of President Nicolás Maduro were ended. Everything depends on what would happen after any military action and no one knows the future.

One possibility (which seems unlikely) is that Venezuela would return to Business-As-Usual (BAU) with a competent Centrist, technocratic Administration. You can experiment yourself with the VEL20 BAU model (here) and explore various scenarios.

Notes

For more information on other Geopolitical Options, see the Venezuelan Blog Roll (here). For more information about how the Dynamic Component State Space models were constructed, see the Boiler Plate.

VEL20 Measurement Model

USL203 Measurement Model

VEL20 US Input System Matrices