World-System (1950-2190) The Important of Stabilizing Growth Rates in Iran

 

In a previous post (here), I presented seven forecasts for Iran. The "best" forecast was a Business-As-Usual (BAU) forecast for infinite exponential growth into the future, a result that would probably please Iran's economic planners. It's also not realistic. The only thing that grows forever is cancer. At some point, Iran (and many other countries) will have to face the Steady-state Economy.

The graphic above shows a forecast for Iranian growth that reaches a steady state sometime after 2190. It involves a simple change to the IR_LM model. The growth parameter is simply changed from 1.01282761 to 0.98, a reduction of about 0.03%--slowing not economic stagnation.

Getting countries to reduce growth rates is not simple matter, as the IPCC has found when trying to control climate change. But, it is the same lesson demonstrated by the Limits to Growth models and System Theoretic considerations.

Notes

You can run the IR_LM model yourself (here). You can read an explanation of how the state space Dynamic Components Models (DCMs) are constructed in the Boiler Plate.