The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I present some examples below.
State Space Models
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Technological Long Waves
The Kondratiev Wave is an important element of World-Systems Theory. The graphic above is taken from Andreas Goldschmidt and gives historical specifics for technological cycles. Goldschmidt's formulation allows for the idea to be tested (one of the models I always test), is consistent with economic Growth theory (particularly exogenous disembodied technological change in the Solow-Swan Model) and I present some examples below.
Tuesday, July 8, 2025
The Iranian Revolution
Notes
Further reading:
Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.
Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration
Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.
Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.
Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.
Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.
Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.
Blog Roll:
- A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
- The Impact of the Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
- Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes
Friday, June 27, 2025
World-System (1950-2190) Stabilizing the Iranian Economy
The graphic above shows a forecast for Iranian growth that reaches a steady state sometime after 2190. It involves a simple change to the IR_LM model. The growth parameter is simply changed from 1.01282761 to 0.98, a reduction of about 0.03%--slowing not economic stagnation.
Getting countries to reduce growth rates is not simple matter, as the IPCC has found when trying to control climate change. But, it is the same lesson demonstrated by the Limits to Growth models and System Theoretic considerations.
For Iran, Instability (unstable Systemic Growth) was created by the pressure to Modernize, both from the Pahlavi dynasty and from the Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration (Walt Rostow, one of Kennedy's Academic Brain Trust, was a strong advocate of "take-off into sustained growth" (the definition of instability in the Growth Component IR1) and a fundamental tenant of Modernization Theory
Notes
Further reading:
Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.
Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration
Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.
Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.
Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.
Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.
Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.
Blog Roll:
- A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
- The Impact of the Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
- Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes
- How Does the Iranian Economy Work? Not like a Neoclassical, free-market economy.
- What was the Impact of the Iranian Revolution? Elimination of Cycles!
- Iranian Globalization and Unemployment Created the discontent that led to the Iranian Revolution.
Tuesday, April 22, 2025
World-System (1450-1540) France, Spain or Go It Alone for England
Thursday, April 17, 2025
World-System (1450-1650): Anne of Cleves and the German Connection
In the graphic above, I have presented alternative growth forecasts for Germany (1450-1640). The dark line is the actual data path and the remaining lines are for the Random Walk (RW), the Business as Usual (BAU) and the World System linkages (W). All the forecasts are similar. After 1600, the Germany was heading for a steady state economy. As I have shown earlier, England would have better going it alone (BAU) or following the World System (here). In any event, alliance with Germany was a path not taken because Henry's marriage to Anne of Cleves quickly failed. Anne was smart enough to take a generous settlement from Henry and she managed to outlive both Henry and Cromwell.
You can explore alternative economic histories for Germany using the DE_L16 model (here) and consult the Boiler Plate (here) for more information about how the state space models were constructed. You can also read my discussion of the German Economy during this period here. And, you can imagine that, rather than Anne of Cleves looks being a factor, John Dee had gotten to Henry with the German growth forecast and convinced him that an alliance was not such a good idea.
Thursday, April 3, 2025
World-System 1540: John Dee makes a Growth Forecast for England
In a prior post (here), John Dee had given Henry VIII a forecast for World System growth. The forecast was not well received. "Who canst fathom a World System?" Henry mumbled as Master Thomas Cromwell led Dee out of the King's chambers, from where Dee returned to his library to divine his next steps.
Henry had asked for something more specific, a forecast for England for example. Dee twirled his protractor, consulted the Angels and came up with the forecasts in the graphic above, unaccountably plagiarized from both my WL16 model and my UKL16 Model. Dee appropriated the original UK1 data (dark line above) and three forecasts: the Random Walk (RW, history is just one damned thing after another), the Business as Usual (BAU) model and a model using the World System state variables (W) as inputs.
Dee was a little nervous about the forecasts, so he presented them first to Cromwell. Cromwell was shocked; there was the World System forecast again (the one Henry did not understand) and now Dee had shown it to be far superior to the more reasonable BAU (England goes it alone) forecast. And having looked into the Future, Dee concluded that England would pursue the BAU path at least to the 1600s (if not to the present and here).
"Dr. Dee, you will have to present the forecast yourself to the King. I needst not be asked to render my opinion." History did not record the meeting between Henry VIII and Dr. Dee but Dee did not lose his head (Cromwell thought "...he will have his head loosed from his shoulders...") and managed to outlive both Henry and Cromwell (John Dee died in poverty and obscurity either in 1608 or 1609). History has recorded Dee's attempts to consult the Angels and explain Henry's failed marriages in terms of Geopolitical divinations. I will report those analyses in future posts.
Season 2, Episode 3 of Wolf Hall premiers this Sunday (April 6, 2025) and it begins Thomas Cromwell's fall from power. Not to be missed! You can stream Season2, Episode 3, Defiance or watch it over the air on Sunday.
Notes
Monday, March 31, 2025
What is a System?
In the past, I was not one who cared much for definitions. Now, I realize that the lack of clear definitions, particularly in the Social Sciences, has led to unnecessary misunderstanding. For example, in grade school, students learn that the Earth is a complex system with a number of spheres and feedback loops (see the graphic above--humans are located in the Biosphere). Then, students get to college and (might) learn in a Sociology course that there is (or maybe there isn't) a Capitalist World System. Or, they might read that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is having trouble identifying feedback loops in Human Systems. Then they might go back to Sociology (or Economics) and find that feedback loops are never discussed and that even the concept of a system is not taken very seriously.
Just to make the discussion somewhat more concrete, does the graphic above (the Kaya Identity used by the IPCC) describe a system (where N=Population, Q=Output, E=Energy, CO2=Carbon Emissions and T = Global Temperature)? The extensive variables (N, Q, E, CO2 and T) are causally connected. The Impact (I=PAT) is described by the intensive variables (q=Q/N, e=E/Q, c=CO2/E and t=T/CO2).
Notes
Sunday, March 23, 2025
Wolf Hall II and the Modern World System (1450-1640): Consulting Astrologer John Dee
I hope you are watching the final episodes of Wolf Hall Season 2 on PBS starting last Sunday, March 23, 2025 (the link is here and you might find parallels to the current political situation in the United States). In a prior post (here) I discussed Season 1. In this post, I will start laying some groundwork for Season 2. In future posts, I'll comment on the remaining episodes (you can stream Season2, Episode 3, Defiance or watch it over the air tonight).
To help me understand the The Tudor Period (1485-1603), I've constructed a number of state space models for England, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Portugal, the World System and other countries in the World-System using available historical statistics (see the country models here that will be attached to future posts). The most noteworthy aspect of my WL16 state space World System model (here) are the two Growth Error Correcting Controllers (ECCs), one is an environmental controller (Q-T) and another is a Malthusian Population and Production controller (Q-N)--see the Measurement Matrix in the Notes below. I can also compare the WL16 model to a conventional economic growth model driven by technological change.*
Another important aspect of the Long Sixteenth Century was that it was the start of Capitalist Agriculture and the formation of the World-System (discussed here and here). The evolution of the World-System is my primary interest in the Wolf Hall TV series because it helps bring the history to life.
Historical re-interpretation is another way to bring history to life and Hillary Mantel does this in Wolf Hall (see the Real Story Behind Wolff Hall and the Fall of Cromwell from the Smithsonian Magazine).
I'm going to extend Hillary Mantel by including John Dee (a character not in "Wolf Hall"). ChatGPT (here) reports that Henry VIII "...did rely on astrologers like John Dee (who later advised Elizabeth I) and may have had private interactions with individuals claiming to predict the future." In the graphic above, I assume that sometime before Cromwell's execution, John Dee made two predictions, one (optimistic forecast) for Henry VIII and one (less optimistic) for Thomas Cromwell. The optimistic forecast was "unlimited growth forever" (the dotted green line in the graphic above) and the less optimistic forecast (the black-blue line) for a Limit to Growth (the dashed red line was the Random Walk--history is just one damed thing after another).
Notes
Links
- Thomas Cromwell (1485-1540) An English statesman and lawyer who served as chief minister to King Henry VIII from 1534 to 1540, when he was beheaded on orders of the king, who later blamed false charges for the execution.
- John Dee (1527-1608) an English mathematician, astronomer, teacher, astrologer, occultist, and alchemist.
- Catherine of Aragon The first wife of King Henry VIII from their marriage on 11 June 1509 until its annulment on 23 May 1533.
- King Henry VIII King of England from 22 April 1509 until his death in 1547.
- Elizabeth I (7 September 1533 – 24 March 1603) the only surviving child of Henry VIII and his second wife, Anne Boleyn. Queen of England and Ireland from 17 November 1558 until her death in 1603.
- English Reformation Took place in 16th-century England when the Church of England was forced by its monarchs and elites to break away from the authority of the Pope and the Catholic Church.
- Anne Boleyn Queen of England from 1533 to 1536 and the second wife of King Henry VIII.
- Oliver Cromwell (25 April 1599 – 3 September 1658) was an English statesman, politician, and soldier, widely regarded as one of the most important figures in British history.
- Thomas Wolsey An English statesman and Catholic cardinal. When Henry VIII became King of England in 1509, Wolsey became the king's almoner.
- Elizabeth Wyckes The wife of Thomas Cromwell (1485 – 28 July 1540), died in 1529 and his daughters, Anne and Grace, are believed to have died not long after their mother.
- Hans Holbein the Younger A German-Swiss painter and printmaker who worked in a Northern Renaissance style, and is considered one of the greatest portraitists of the 16th century.
- Wolf Hall A 2009 historical novel by English author Hilary Mantel, published by Fourth Estate, named after the Seymour family's seat of Wolfhall, or Wulfhall, in Wiltshire. Set in the period from 1500 to 1535, Wolf Hall is a sympathetic fictionalized biography documenting the rapid rise to power of Thomas Cromwell in the court of Henry VIII through to the death of Sir Thomas More.
- Wolf Hall (TV Series) a British television series adaptation of two of Hilary Mantel's novels, Wolf Hall and Bring Up the Bodies, a fictionalized biography documenting the life of Thomas Cromwell.
- World-Systems Theory A multidisciplinary approach to world history and social change which emphasizes the world-system (and not nation states) as the primary (but not exclusive) unit of social analysis.
- Sweating Sickness A mysterious and contagious disease that struck England and later continental Europe in a series of epidemics beginning in 1485.
- Holy Roman Empire A polity in Central and Western Europe, usually headed by the Holy Roman Emperor.[19] It developed in the Early Middle Ages and lasted for almost a thousand years until its dissolution in 1806 during the Napoleonic Wars.
- Timeline of British History 1500-1599
- Timelines of World History
- The Black Death The Black Death was a bubonic plague pandemic that occurred in Europe from 1346 to 1353. It was one of the most fatal pandemics in human history.
- English Civil War a series of civil wars and political machinations between Royalists and Parliamentarians in the Kingdom of England from 1642 to 1651.
- Peasant's Revolt a major uprising across large parts of England in 1381.
- Feudalism a combination of legal, economic, military, cultural, and political customs that flourished in medieval Europe from the 9th to 15th centuries.
- The 15th Century the century which spans the Julian calendar dates from 1 January 1401 (represented by the Roman numerals MCDI) to 31 December 1500 (MD).
- Little Ice Age a period of regional cooling, particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic region.
- Economic History of the United Kingdom the economic development in the British state from the absorption of Wales into the Kingdom of England after 1535 to the modern United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland of the early 21st century.
- Tudor Period In England and Wales, the Tudor period occurred between 1485 and 1603, including the Elizabethan era during the reign of Elizabeth I (1558–1603).