The graphic above shows a forecast for Iranian growth that reaches a steady state sometime after 2190. It involves a simple change to the IR_LM model. The growth parameter is simply changed from 1.01282761 to 0.98, a reduction of about 0.03%--slowing growth not economic stagnation.
Getting countries to reduce growth rates is not simple matter, as the IPCC has found when trying to control climate change. But, it is the same lesson demonstrated by the Limits to Growth models and System Theoretic considerations.
For Iran, Instability (unstable Systemic Growth) was created by the pressure to Modernize, both from the Pahlavi dynasty and from the Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration (Walt Rostow, one of Kennedy's Academic Brain Trust, was a strong advocate of "take-off into sustained growth" (the definition of historical instability in the Growth Component IR1) and a fundamental tenant of Modernization Theory
Notes
Further reading:
Iranian Revolution a series of events that culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.
Strait of Hormuz a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
Iran-Contra Affair a political scandal in the United States that centered on arms trafficking to Iran between 1981 and 1986, facilitated by senior officials of the Ronald Reagan administration
Iran Nuclear Program one of the most scrutinized nuclear programs in the world, has sparked intense international concern.
Pahlavi Iran the Iranian state under the rule of the Pahlavi dynasty. The Pahlavi dynasty was created in 1925 and lasted until 1979 when it was ousted as part of the Iranian Revolution, which ended the Iranian monarchy and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran-Iraq War an armed conflict between Iran and Iraq that lasted from September 1980 to August 1988. Active hostilities began with the Iraqi invasion of Iran and lasted for nearly eight years, until the acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 598 by both sides.
Iranian Economy a mixed, centrally planned economy with a large public sector. It consists of hydrocarbon, agricultural and service sectors, in addition to manufacturing and financial services, with over 40 industries traded on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
The White Revolution a far-reaching series of reforms to aggressively modernize the Imperial State of Iran launched on 26 January 1963 by the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and ended with his overthrow in 1979.
Modernization Theory holds that as societies become more economically modernized, wealthier and more educated, their political institutions become increasingly liberal democratic and rationalist.
Foreign Policy of the Kennedy Administration The United States foreign policy during the presidency of John F. Kennedy from 1961 to 1963 included diplomatic and military initiatives in Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, all conducted amid considerable Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe.
Blog Roll:
- Stabilizing the Iranian Economy Easy but not easy!
- A Deep Dive into the Iranian State Space Cycles vs. Control
- The Iranian Revolution Still being worked out today.
- Will Israel and US Attacks Hurt the World-System? Yes
- How Does the Iranian Economy Work? Not like a Neoclassical, free-market economy.
- What was the Impact of the Iranian Revolution? Elimination of Cycles!
- Iranian Globalization and Unemployment Created the discontent that led to the Iranian Revolution.
