In the video above from CNBC, Dan Senor claims Israel is now the most important geopolitical power in the Middle East. The question in my mind is whether Israel as Regional Hegemon would be best for the people of the Middle East. In this post, I use the MEA_L20 and the IL_L20 models to test the conjecture.
Google AI reports the following:
Google AI goes on to give arguments for and against Israel as a Middle East Hegemon (see the Notes below). What do the state space models predict?
Using variants of the IL_L20 Model with different inputs, the best model for the Middle East (MEA) was Business-as-Usual (BAU) Input from Israel.
COMMENT: Here is a case (and there are certainly many others) where the best outcome for a given population (the People of the Middle East and North Africa) is not going to happen, at least in the short-term.
And, the available steady-options seem equally out of reach. The absence of realistic Geopolitical Options leaves the Middle-East in turmoil for the foreseeable future.
Notes
State Space models of the Middle East in the R-programming language can be found here. Instructions for stabilizing each system are in the code.
Chapuisat (2025) Hegemony or Normalization: Israel’s Future in the Middle East
Law and Liberty (2025) The Era of Israeli Hegemony?
Mirisch, J (2025) Israel: A Blind Spot for Steady Staters?
Arguments Against Israeli Hegemony
- Lack of Legitimacy Israel is not accepted as a regional leader.
- Scale Limitations As a country, Israel is too small to dominate the Middle East.
- Dependency on the US Israel is seen as a US Proxy.
- Resistance and Counterbalancing Neighboring states would form aliances against Israeli dominance.
Arguments For Israeli Hegemony
- Military Superiority It would be a fragile, military balance of power.
- Alignment of Interests A safeguard against Radical Islam.
- The Abraham Accords established Diplomatic relations between Israel and other Middle-Eastern Countries.
Hegemonic Dominance AIC Statistics
