World-System (1450-1540) France, Spain or Go It Alone for England

 

This Sunday is the final Episode of Wolf Hall, Mirror and Light (preview above). Cromwell looses favor with Henry VIII and, unlike when your narcissist, egomaniac boss fires you, Thomas Cromwell is beheaded.  Interesting events in the last episode (here), especially in the Privy Council, set the stage for Cromwell's fall. The need for a Geopolitical Alliance with Germany (the Holy Roman Empire) fades as France and Spain reduce tensions. And, the Privy Council starts accusing Cromwell of trying to arrange an unnecessary and unpopular (with Henry) marriage with Anne of Cleves and divert blame from itself.

In Henry's lifetime (1491-1547), this seems to be the end of forging Geopolitical Alliance with marriage. His next wife, the young and adulterous Catherine Howard, was also beheaded in 1542 and his final wife, Catherine Parr, outlived Henry. Was anything lost by failing to form Geopolitical Alliance with continental countries? In a prior post (here) the forecast for alignment with Germany did not look economically promising. Possible economic alliances with France and Spain are presented above. France might have helped economic growth in England, but Spain would not have. In the end, during this period (1450-1540), England ends up going it alone after many lives were lost and the King's treasury quite depleted. 

My analysis of England's alliance failures in the Long Sixteenth Century leave open the question of why and whether the Balance of Power System failed. I will move on to that question in future posts. For the time being, you can run the ES_L16 model (here) and the FR_L16 model (here), in addition to other models for the Long Sixteenth Century here.