State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

World-System (0-2000) What Caused the Industrial Revolution?

                 

The graphic above is a time plot of World Aggregate Production (W_Q) taken from Maddison (see the Boiler Pate).  The growth of Capitalism is typically data from 1500-Present with a clear visible take-off starting in the 19th Century. The burning question is "Why"!


ChatGPT (an AI Systems) produces the graphic above as an answer to the question "What Caused the Industrial Revolution".*** One can quibble with some of the links in the graph ("Why aren't Profits plowed back into the production process?", "What about Environmental Impacts?", etc.), but the graph is a good place to start.


The Kaya Identity is another good place to start (notice the Kaya Identity does not have feedback loops).

The causes of the Industrial Revolution are not possible to consider in one post, but I think there is a causal explanation that has been missed and I will investigate it in future posts.


Notes


*** Actually, my question was about feedback loops in the Industrial Revolution but you can asked the "What Caused" question yourself here. Google AI provides the following answer:

AI Overview
The main causes of the Industrial Revolution include 
  • combination of the Agricultural Revolutionwhich freed up labor and increased foodproduction;
  • technological innovations like the steam engine and new machinery that mechanized production;
  • access to natural resources such as coal and iron;
  • economic and political factors like capitalismavailable capitaland supportive government policies;
  • and an increase in population growth and made, which created both work force and demand for goods.

Agricultural advancements

The enclosure movement:Landowners consolidated smaller plots of land, making farming more efficient and forcing many rural laborers to seek work in cities.
New farming techniques:Innovations like Jethro Tull's seed drill increased crop yields, supporting a larger population.

Technological innovation

New inventions:

Key inventions like the spinning jenny, water frame, and steam engine revolutionized production in the textile and other industries.

Mechanization:
Machines could produce goods faster and more cheaply than by hand, leading to the development of the factory system.
Economic and political factors
Capitalism:
An economic system with private property and free enterprise encouraged investment and risk-taking.
Available capital:
A large amount of money was available for investment in new businesses and technologies.
Supportive government:
Policies, such as those protecting property rights and patents, encouraged innovation and industrial growth.
Abundant natural resources:
Britain, the birthplace of the revolution, had large deposits of coal for power and iron for machinery, often located near waterways for transport.
Growing population:
Population growth provided both a large workforce for factories and a bigger market for consumer goods.
Improved transportation:
Systems like canals and later railroads made it cheaper and faster to transport raw materials and finished products.

References















Thursday, October 16, 2025

World-System (1960-2150) La French TECH Cycles



In a prior post (here) and in prior posts on the French Economy (here), I have found that the French Economy (or at least my model of it) is approaching a Steady State. My hypothesis is that the approaching steady state might (in addition to a lot of other forces) be creating Political Instability. However, no one knows the Future and we have to entertain other hypotheses.

The current 2025 Noble Prize in Economics offers another hypothesis. History teaches us that new technologies and Creative Destruction will eventually break steady states and send Economic Systems on to new Attractor Paths. The hypothesis is the essential argument of Kondratiev Wave Theory (here) and is embraced by World-Systems Theory. An alternative forecast for France is that the Steady State will not happen due to La French TECH.

The graphic above plots two historical forms of French Technology: Productivity (TECHP) and Efficiency (TECHE) (see the Notes below). Notice that they are both cyclical (echoes of Schumpeter's Creative Destruction model which is also cyclical but unstable). Notice also that TECHP (productivity) peaks before TECHE (efficiency): once a productivity peak is reached, focus turns toward efficiency until all gains are exhausted.

Unfortunately for France, both of these technological peaks (at least in my model which is estimated from World Development Data) are going to be reached in the near future: (1) reinforcing the steady state or (2) creating more instability and a search for new technologies to put the economy on another growth path. Since we do not know the Future, nothing is guaranteed.

For more on Stable French Technology Cycles see the post hereSchumpeter's Creative Destruction model predicts unstable Creative Destruction cycles and the French Technology Cycles are stable.
 

Notes

FR TECH Measurement Models


The two types of Technological Change  (TECHP and TECHE) are explained in a post on Technology in the United Kingdom which also is a good comparison to the French Model. Essentially, TECHP is productivity (output per capita)  and TECHE is efficiency (for example, CO2 emissions relative to energy consumption).

Friday, October 10, 2025