In a prior post (here) I found that most scenarios for the "New Axis of Evil" (Russia, China and India) led to collapse of the system, except for one: the BAU (Business as Usual) Scenario. In one interpretation of the BAU scenario, the AXIS is allowed to dominate the World System and the US without interference from other countries. Although the scenario seems unlikely and might well lead to World War III, in this post I will take it seriously and see what happen between the present and the year 2100.
In another interpretation of the BAU Scenario, the AXIS is necessary to drive exponential growth of the World-System and of the Hegemonic leader (the US). I like the Functionalist explanation. Functionalism suggests we focus on the World-System, which I think is the right focus. In this post, I will present a model that demonstrates the Functionalist explanation for the New Axis of Evil.
The Functionalist explanation hypothesizes that the Axis-of-Evil is necessary to stimulate military spending and growth of all participants.
Politicians, on the other hand, seem to have no concept of a World-System which leads to a Contradiction: are there systemic considerations that affect the AXIS? The graphic above shows the non-system view: exponential growth forever, the US1 and the World System (W1) driven independently by the Axis.
The graphic above shows the US1 growth system forecast when driven by the AXIS model. The function of the AXIS is to stabilize the system, at least in terms of US growth.
The same is not true for World System growth (W1) in the graphic above. In other words, US growth, given AXIS input, is at the expense of the World System.
You can run the AXIS_of_Evil models here.
